As we come down to the last two or three weeks of the season, the debate will certainly be heated as about 10-15 teams fight for the last 5 or 6 at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. As of February 26th, there may be no more suprising team in that discussion than the Kentucky Wildcats...especially when you look at where they were even a month ago.
Part of this exercise is going to rely on some hypotheticals. Kentucky is 15-10 and has little margin for error down the stretch, so most of the hypotheticals will surround them having to pretty much win every game. With that in mind, they have games left against:
- vs. Mississippi (RPI 45)
- at Tennessee (RPI 1)
- at South Carolina (RPI 130)
- vs. Florida (RPI 59)
- Anywhere from 1 to 3 games in the SEC Tournament
I'm not going to assume Kentucky is going to win at Knoxville, and that can hardly be considered a bad loss. So, I believe they need to go 3-1 in the rest of the regular season, then get to the SEC Tournament finals and lose. That would have them sitting at 20-12 overall and 14-5 in the SEC.
20-12 may still not be good enough to get in...but here's why I think it will be enough.
- Kentucky would be 20-12 overall and 14-5 (the 2nd best record) in the SEC (the nation's 6th best conference.)
- While their RPI is 65, UK's has played the 19th toughest schedule in the country.
- In their last 12 games (the new NCAA Selection Committee standard), UK would be 9-3.
- They'd have four wins against Top 50 teams in the RPI (Tennessee, Arkansas, Vandy, Ole Miss.) That doesn't even count SEC Tournament wins.
- As bad as their early season swoon seemed to be at the time, in retrospect, it wasn't THAT bad. Only two of UK's losses were against teams with RPI's higher than 100 (Gardner-Webb 207, San Diego 106.)
- Kentucky fought through injuries, not to mention a new coach, in the beginning of the season and are now a MUCH better team than they were in December.
With all of that in mind, if UK can go to Knoxville and win, they may just punch their ticket there to the dance. It's hard to argue that a team doesn't deserve to be in the tournament when they sweep the #1 team in the country.
Now to play Devil's Advocate...even if they get to 20-12 it still may not be good enough. Here's why I don't think they get into the NCAA tournament unless they win the SEC Tournament.
- Gardner-Webb, anyone? San Diego? Not only are those UK's two worst losses of the year, but they also happened at home.
- Assuming they win and lose the expected games down the stretch, they'd only be 4-7 on the road with wins at Georgia (RPI 133), Auburn (128), LSU (176) and South Carolina (130). Not exactly a "good" road win in there.
- While they'd be 5-6 in against RPI Top-50 teams, they'd only be 5-9 against RPI Top-100 teams.
- As well as they've played in the last month, it may be hard for the committee to shake that horrific loss at Vanderbilt a couple weeks ago. Especially with it being on national TV, they didn't exactly put their best foot forward that night for people who may decide their postseason fate.
- The SEC is hardly the SEC we've seen in years past. While it is still the sixth toughest conference in America, only six SEC teams have winning records in the conference. Not by coincidence, those are the six teams that are up for NCAA consideration. Five of them, according to the experts, are in really good shape to get in to the tournament. The 6th? Kentucky.
A lot has to play out during the next couple of weeks. A month ago, I never would have believed Kentucky had a chance to get in to the NCAA Tournament. But now, on February 26th, they're back in the conversation. They have by no means done enough yet to get in, but at least they are venturing back in to the discussion. 20 wins would be huge for them. The question is...can they get there?
Thoughts? Concerns? Dating tips? The floor is yours.
