As Jennifer posted yesterday, we're keeping our eye on another round of active and potentially severe weather that looks to impact the region Monday night into Tuesday.  My concern is that at this point, the setup for early next week looks quite similar to what we saw this past Tuesday when we saw widespread damaging winds. 

Here's the setup at the moment....a warm front will pass through the area on Sunday, leading to strong warm air and moisture advection by Monday, when we'll be seeing highs in the upper 60's and lots of Gulf moisture heading our way.  By Monday night, our forecast models are in very good agreement that a deepening trough of low pressure and its associated powerful cold front will begin sweeping eastward from the Central Plains.  Late Monday night , when we are in the warm sector of the storm (the area between the warm & cold fronts), conditions may be favorable for the development of isolated thunderstorms, and depending on how unstable the atmosphere becomes, some of those cells could evolve into supercells.  That threat appears to be mainly for northwestern Arkansas and southeast Missouri...thus the issuance of a slight risk of severe storms there for Monday night. 

I'm anticipating that with the next update from the SPC, the slight risk area will be extended north and eastward for Tuesday to cover most or all of the NewsChannel 6 viewing area.  My greatest concern at the moment is that by Tuesday the storms could develop into an organized line just ahead of the cold front, and with very strong mid and upper-level winds in place, that could lead to another potentially damaging wind event across the area, plus the potential for a few supercells ahead of the front.

In addition to all of that, another factor we'll have to watch with this system is the possibility of very heavy rainfall. At this point, indications are that parts of the area could see between 1-3 inches of rainfall by the time the storm moves east late Tuesday.  With the ground already saturated, this could obviously lead to some localized flooding if that scenario plays out. 

It is still a little too far out to be totally confident that we'll see another round of severe weather, but based on the fact that the forecast models are coming into strong agreement, as well as thinking back to what has happend the last couple of times we saw a cold front move in behind 60-70 degree weather, I think it is a good idea to watchful eye on this system.  I'll be checking out the updated model runs tomorrow and will have an update for you then.  The rest of the Weather Authorities are already watching the situation as well and will be working hard to track whatever may come our way........... In the meantime, let's get this Super Bowl out of the way and head to Spring Training.  I'm ready to hear the sound of a catchers' mitt popping!

--Meteorologist Trent Okerson