After enjoying some MUCH needed drying out time, rain chances come back into the forecast Tuesday night. A cold front is advancing from the Northern Plains and will sit stationary over the region for 2-3 days. Although we are not expecting a long, steady rain...we are forecasting a few rounds of showers and storms that will bring added flooding concerns. Most rivers are just now cresting, which is good, but they may swell again going into the upcoming weekend. At this point, 1-2" of rain is possible as a total from Wed-Fri. The storm prediction center has also outlooked our region for strong storms Thursday night - Friday. The main threat will be damaging winds.
The active weather pattern is attributed to a strong La Nina signal. In a typical La Nina year, moisture is higher and so are the temperatures. La Nina can last anywhere from a couple of months to as long as 2 years. At the very least, it looks like we are going to keep our active weather through much of Spring. One thing is certain, we are no longer concerned about drought conditions. It would be nice to see a weaker La Nina stick around for the summer months.
I have been thinking a lot about this past winter's forecasts. I'll be the first to admit that it was a difficult period with changing forecasts, missed winter events, and history making weather. I can honestly say that a few of the snow/ice events (especially the snow storm) still leave me scratching my head. I have never seen such an active winter period that included ice, snow, severe weather, high winds, and temperature swings. I could take the easy way out and blame global warming.....not going to do that! I think that might be part of the bigger picture in some respect but not one single weather event can be blamed on climate change. Just like El Nino, La Nina sends the jetstream into overdrive. The computer models that we use on a daily basis just do not take that in to account and thus give us an "incomplete" look at the atmosphere. That is a big challenge!
Its very disappointing to me that it led to some inaccurate forecasts when it counted most. I received some not-so-nice emails and calls from viewers that shared in that disappointment. I wish I had some magical weather wand that gave me some better insight this past winter but its like any other science. In medicine, you can prescribe all the right medication and perform a perfect surgery and sometimes it just doesnt work....with no explaination. Meteorology is a science and it is nowhere near perfect. Even in the day and age and "the power of Ultimate Doppler Six Live Radars", its not always going to work. I can assure you this....the staff of meteorologists we have here at Channel 6 give 100% every single day to make sure we give the viewer the very best information we have. You hear our news slogan all the time...WORKING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE. For most, it is just a saying but I have always lived by that through my service to our viewers. I really do care about how the weather will impact people. That's why when heavy weather is expected, we often put in 12+ hour days, sometimes days at a time without complaint. It's my passion! I could care less about the being on tv aspect. Its a perk, yes. I have always offered that if someone wants to come and shadow the meteorologists and see what all we really do, we would love to have them with us for the day.
Off the ranting now.....it takes thick skin to be in this business. I would really like to hear your feedback and what you would like to see more of from us. I enjoy writing in this blog because it is less formal and it gives me a place to get to know some of our viewers. Talk back!
Meteorologist Jennifer Rukavina 
