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The Weather Authority Blog

Tornado Outbreak Possible

This is one of the hardest weather events to prepare for.... a tornado outbreak. It’s difficult to spread the word without scaring people because lets face it...tornadoes are Mother Nature’s fiercest phenomenon. I too, am frightened by tornadoes but it has been through my seeking research and explanation on how they behave that has given me some ease of mind when severe weather threatens. I encourage those of you with serious fears of storms and tornadoes to read as much as you can on the science behind them.

As I write this post, I constantly switch back and forth between this and the radar out west. Severe weather is already ongoing in the Southern Plains and the Red River Valley Wed night and the main storm system is just beginning to take shape. It will strengthen overnight and during the day on Thursday. Here is what we are looking at for our region...


The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK had issued a moderate risk for severe weather for Thursday and Thursday night for the entire NewsChannel 6 viewing area. For a look at a map in detail, click here. There is talk from SPC of being upgraded to a High Risk. A High Risk is rare and is issued only a handful of times each year.

From early morning thru noon: scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible, especially in SE Missouri. Storms may be strong but should remain below severe limits.

From Noon - 5pm: Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop during the heat of the day. The amount of sunshine we receive will determine how many do develop. The more sunshine, the more numerous and dangerous the storms will be.

From 5pm - Overnight: A concentrated line of storms will come together in Missouri early evening and push eastward. This line will be associated with a strong cold front. We will have to monitor the progression of the cold front to see how long into the overnight the threat for severe weather will last. Best guess.....storms should exit the eastern counties in KY by 5am.

THREATS: A severe weather outbreak is looking more likely including large hail, destructive winds, and strong long-lived tornadoes. This threat is most likely from mid afternoon through the overnight into Friday morning.


Now is the time to prepare before storms strike. Review safety plans with your family and co-workers. Know where to go if severe weather strikes at night. Find a sturdy shelter, preferably a basement or lower level, interior room in your home. Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible. Cover yourself from flying debris with a blanket or mattress. If you live in a mobile home, make plans to find alternative shelter. If caught outside, lie flat to the ground in a (water-free) ditch.

This may sound a bit cheesy but it is nothing but serious. When we are at risk for this kind of severe weather threat, we remember that Mother Nature will do her thing and we can only help give you the best information we have to keep you safe. We are very passionate about being here for our viewers when they need us most. We have the same worries and concerns for our families when severe weather threatens and know how important our job is. I personally feel like my purpose here on Earth is to be relied on during the most dangerous weather. We will be putting in some very long days ahead but in the end, it is totally worth it if it helps saves even one life!

Meteorologist Jennifer Rukavina Storm

 

 

Published Wednesday, April 09, 2008 9:00 PM by jrukavina

Comments

 

KVE140 said:

It looks like its all coming together...sometimes we know its "how bad it hits" instead of "if it hits"...
And of course people don't need to forget to watch 6.3 (i plug this every chance I get)

Since you brought up the safety points on severe weather, I want to add my comments.
When there's a fire, when people run away, there's always someone or some people that run back in the fire.   As in the case of severe weather, there are people out here in the community, some affiliate with emergency services, and some not, who have a desire to go out in the weather instead of going inside when severe weather threatens.  They're known as storm watchers, storm spotters, storm chasers, SKYWARN spotters, field observers, etc.  Call them what you want, they go out and find severe weather, when the general population prepares for severe weather to find them.  We all know spotters are the eyes and ears for the radar and the "field reps" for the NWS.  There's no way to measure the importance of human weather observations.  We're all here for our own reasons, hopefully all of us to help the community in some manner.   No matter what the reason anyone would do this, the bottom line is that storm spotters, myself included, need to remember to be careful ourselves and practice what's been preached to us in weather spotting class and what we've learned out in the field.  And for those who get out in the storms for "the love of the game" without training, this is most definitely a dangerous "game" not knowing the rules, and should be avoided.  Location and communication - two most important elements of storm observation in my opinion.

I bring all this up because I was speaking with a couple of folks who for years had attended several storm spotting classes, and simply did not remember some basic guidelines of safe storm spotting.

Either way, being a weather enthusiast and storm observer myself, I have a huge amount of respect for fellow weather enthusiasts, from the person who wants that picture or video, the spotter, the chaser, all the way to the meteorologists that work hours on end through severe weather events to provide info to the public to keep them safe, and I'm glad we have people as interested in public protection in the media as well as out in the field.     Sorry for the long rant, later all.
April 10, 2008 2:04 AM
 

SVRWXGuy said:

It should be an interesting day Thursday for severe weather. If things play out as they are thinking now, we could be in for a rough time Thursday evening and through the overnite in to Friday morning. Whenever SPC talks of Supercells with Long-track tornadoes, it's usually a good thing to pay attention to.  
Sometimes it's a busted forecast , but this system has been on the horizon for about
a week now. It's going to depend on how the current activity moves through and how the atmosphere responds and recovers into tomorrow afternoon. 0-1Km helicities are through the roof and Td's are expected to be in the low to mid 60's as far up as S central IL.

SvrWxGuy
April 10, 2008 2:20 AM
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About jrukavina

Born and raised in Canton, Ohio....home of the Professional Football Hall of Fame. Graduated from Mississippi State University with a Masters of Science in Broadcast Meteorologist. Prior to that, a graduate of Kent State University with a Bachelors of Arts in Political Science and a minor in Geography. Actively involved and is a member of the National Weather Association, the American Meteorological Society, the 4-Rivers Chapter of the National Weather Association, an avid storm chaser, 2nd place Kentucky AP winner for best weathercast 2006, and a recent Emmy Nominee for coverage of April 2006's Tornado Outbreak across the NewsChannel 6 area. Her husband Brian is the Assistant Director of Environmental Education at Murray State. They are the proud parents of their first son, born August 2006.

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