As our unusually active weather pattern charges on....an enhanced threat for severe storms is possible Friday afternoon through the overnight hours. Wednesday night, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK outlooked our region in a Slight Risk. The National Weather Service in Paducah discussed the possibility that we may see that upgraded to a Moderate Risk. The main threat....Friday afternoon storms developing ahead of a strong cold front will pose the risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Later in the evening and overnight hours, a cold front will bring a squall line of strong storms capable of producing damaging winds.

We are watching the computer models very carefully with this system. They have been pretty consistant over the past few days showing a potent system moving through with plenty of moisture to work with. One thing to pay attention to....how much sunshine we receive early Friday afternoon. Even an hour's worth of sunshine will drive our probability up for stronger storms.

Another thing that I watch for is the dynamic make-up of the atmosphere. We will have a great deal of shear (spin) as well as forcing for deveopment to take place. With the high winds in place this week, that may slow the development if the winds are too strong. A slightly stronger wind is good for thunderstorm development, but winds that are too strong may inhibit storm development. Keep checking back with us on how the models look closer to the main event!

Meteorologist Jennifer Rukavina