As of Thursday afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our risk for severe weather by placing our region in a Moderate Risk, replacing the Slight Risk that was issued Wednesday. <For a look at the previous post on the severe weather threat, click here.>

Important is the timing on the event itself. We are looking for potentially two rounds of storms. By early afternoon, we should see an hour or two of sunshine that could force the development of more isolated thunderstorms across the 4-state region. Following that, a squall line is expected to move through with a strong cold front during the late evening and into the overnight Saturday morning.

With warm, moist air in place along with strong turning of the winds going up in the atmosphere...the setup for a severe weather event is being supported by the computer models we look at. The strongest dynamics for thunderstorm development moves into the region from 10pm Fri - 6am Sat. This means most of you will either be out enjoying the start of your weekend or many will be sleeping. This is why we encourage people to have a weather radio in their homes. A weather radio will alert you to severe weather, even when you are asleep so that you can tune to us and check the radar.

As for the main threats with these thunderstorms....we are expecting the risk of tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds. Remember, when we show severe thunderstorm warnings, that means:

Severe Thunderstorm: winds atleast 58 mph or stronger are being produced OR hail is the size of pennies or larger.

When we show tornado warnings, that means:

Tornado Warning: radar indicates strong rotation within the thunderstorm and may develop a tornado at any moment, OR a tornado has been spotted.

Look for another update on the severe weather threat later this evening or tomorrow morning.