The Weather Authority Blog

Risk of Severe Storms Tonight

tokerson — Sat, 10 May 2008 14:40:00 GMT

Most of the NewsChannel 6 viewing area remains under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight into early tomorrow morning. Numerous tornado warnings have been issued to our south and west with this system, and conditions are still favorable for severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes over the next several hours across our region. It still appears that these storms will move through our area late tonight and into the wee hours of tomorrow morning. Although our area has been taken out of a moderate risk, atmospheric conditions are still ripe for storm development, and we will not be out of the woods until the cold front with this system passes through, which will likely be in the 2-4 am timeframe. The Weather Authority team is tracking this system, and we'll keep you updated through the night.

Meteorologist Trent Okerson

Rain chances continue during an already wet season!

kmounce — Thu, 08 May 2008 22:55:00 GMT

Sunshine has been a difficult thing to come by this year, and it doesn't appear a pattern change is coming any time soon. This year, the area has picked up more than 25" of rain -- the average 18". With all of the rain in a short period of time, some area rivers are still above flood stage. Over the next 7 days (May 9th- May 15th) there are more rain symbols than sun in the forecast, which means we will be adding even more to our already high rain totals.

Rainfall Forecast: Next 5 Days

Meteorologist Kyle Mounce

Severe Storms Friday - UPDATE

jrukavina — Thu, 01 May 2008 19:22:00 GMT

As of Thursday afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our risk for severe weather by placing our region in a Moderate Risk, replacing the Slight Risk that was issued Wednesday. <For a look at the previous post on the severe weather threat, click here.>

Important is the timing on the event itself. We are looking for potentially two rounds of storms. By early afternoon, we should see an hour or two of sunshine that could force the development of more isolated thunderstorms across the 4-state region. Following that, a squall line is expected to move through with a strong cold front during the late evening and into the overnight Saturday morning.

With warm, moist air in place along with strong turning of the winds going up in the atmosphere...the setup for a severe weather event is being supported by the computer models we look at. The strongest dynamics for thunderstorm development moves into the region from 10pm Fri - 6am Sat. This means most of you will either be out enjoying the start of your weekend or many will be sleeping. This is why we encourage people to have a weather radio in their homes. A weather radio will alert you to severe weather, even when you are asleep so that you can tune to us and check the radar.

As for the main threats with these thunderstorms....we are expecting the risk of tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds. Remember, when we show severe thunderstorm warnings, that means:

Severe Thunderstorm: winds atleast 58 mph or stronger are being produced OR hail is the size of pennies or larger.

When we show tornado warnings, that means:

Tornado Warning: radar indicates strong rotation within the thunderstorm and may develop a tornado at any moment, OR a tornado has been spotted.

Look for another update on the severe weather threat later this evening or tomorrow morning.

Spring Storms May Disrupt Friday Plans

jrukavina — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 21:54:00 GMT

As our unusually active weather pattern charges on....an enhanced threat for severe storms is possible Friday afternoon through the overnight hours. Wednesday night, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK outlooked our region in a Slight Risk. The National Weather Service in Paducah discussed the possibility that we may see that upgraded to a Moderate Risk. The main threat....Friday afternoon storms developing ahead of a strong cold front will pose the risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Later in the evening and overnight hours, a cold front will bring a squall line of strong storms capable of producing damaging winds.

We are watching the computer models very carefully with this system. They have been pretty consistant over the past few days showing a potent system moving through with plenty of moisture to work with. One thing to pay attention to....how much sunshine we receive early Friday afternoon. Even an hour's worth of sunshine will drive our probability up for stronger storms.

Another thing that I watch for is the dynamic make-up of the atmosphere. We will have a great deal of shear (spin) as well as forcing for deveopment to take place. With the high winds in place this week, that may slow the development if the winds are too strong. A slightly stronger wind is good for thunderstorm development, but winds that are too strong may inhibit storm development. Keep checking back with us on how the models look closer to the main event!

Meteorologist Jennifer Rukavina

Agricultural Weather Data

tokerson — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 18:03:00 GMT

With spring in high gear, we've had several requests from area farmers for weather and climate data specific to agriculture. Since the 3 minutes or so that we have on air are usually pretty jam packed as it is, the best way to convey that information most likely is through the web, so I have found a few links that you may find helpful if you don't already have access to this information.

USDA Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin: http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdf

Agriculture Online Weather http://www.agriculture.com/ag/weather/index.jhtml?ordersrc=google4agweather_index&cobrandId=ww5&s_kwcid=agricultural%20weather|634005862 (Enter zip code for specific data)

NOAA Drought Monitor http://www.drought.noaa.gov/

Local NWS Almanac http://www.weather.gov/climate/locations.php?wfo=pah (Click on Paducah or Evansville, then click "GO" in yellow box for latest almanac report. Include soil temperature.)

Hope these are helpful.

Trent Okerson

Earthshaking Leaves Me Uneasy

jrukavina — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 01:25:00 GMT

It was an experience unlike any other. I was awakened by the house creaking and shifting and the bed shaking back and forth. It was my first earthquake. For those of you who have felt them before, I guess you are used to the ground movin' a little. For me, I was a little freaked out. Put me on the path to chase a tornado or awaiting a land falling hurricane and I am nothing short of an adrenaline junkie....but when the earth shook beneath me, I felt very small. Mother Earth reminds us very quickly that we are at her mercy and that things can change in a split second.

Thankfully nobody was hurt and no serious damage was reported when the 5.2 magnitude earthquake hit Southern Illinois last Friday. The aftershocks were not as powerful but were felt for many miles from Missouri to Tennessee. Many people I have spoken to are surprised that you could feel these quakes so far away. I know a bit of background on the fault system that lies below us and it is quite different than those that lie below Southern California and the Pacific Rim. On the West Coast, fault lines are associated with continental plate boundaries. Here in the Lower Midwest, we lie in the middle of a continental plate. Our soil is different as well. Our region is built on a great deal of sandy soil due to the proximity to the area rivers. This could lead to a process called liquefaction. The sandy soil turns to a "liquid" and can cause greater damage if a large enough earthquake hit. On the West Coast...their soils are rockier and accustomed to shifting and shaking. People can feel our quakes for greater distances because of the fact that we are in the middle of a continental plate. The vibrations radiate out further on a solid, "unbroken" surface.

In light of the recent quake and the awareness that the New Madrid fault remains active, I have been reading more and more everyday about our region's shaking. If you have any thoughts or reactions you would like to share, please contribute to the blog. I know many viewers have personal stories and reflections about this issue and this is a great place to share with others!

Let there be "shakeless" nights ahead!

Meteorologist Jennifer Rukavina

Is this a preview of the Big One?

tokerson — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 18:40:00 GMT

Well, being a lifelong resident of this area, I can remember a few minor to moderate earthquakes occurring in our area, and each time it serves to bring up the discussions about the "big one" that many have expected and even tried to predict over time. Of course, I can remember being in 5th grade several years ago when a scientist named Iben Browning had predicted a 50% chance of a major earthquake in the New Madrid area on Dec. 2 or 3, 1990, because of increased tidal forces that he said would push the stress on the fault over the edge. Of course, nothing happened, because there is simply no scientifically proven method to predict earthquakes. So was this earthquake a "precursor" to a major earthquake that may strike central America? Well, nothing can be ruled out, but probably not. The Central United States Earthquake Consortium in Memphis is a great resource for earthquake information, recent events, and what to do to prepare for a quake. Here is the link to their website: http://www.cusec.org/

As far as some of the questions you may have about earthquakes and "The Big One", here are some answers I found on their site.

--Meteorologist (and I guess now part time geologist) Trent Okerson

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ's)
about
Seismic Hazard in the Central U.S.

Have the estimates of the recurrence intervals for 1811-1812 type earthquakes changed?
Yes. Paleoseismic (geologic) studies conducted over the last few years have shown that sequences of earthquakes of comparable size to that in 1811-1812 have occurred at least twice before, in approximately 900 and 1450 AD. This implies a recurrence interval of about 500 years.

Does it also mean that the recurrence interval for a magnitude 6 event has also changed?
New ways of looking at the historical record of earthquakes have also caused us to revise estimates of the recurrence time of moderate earthquakes, but only slightly. This change has not been enough to affect the hazard significantly. By ‘hazard’ we mean the amount of earthquake ground shaking expected during some time period with some specified probability. Estimates of this at any give location depend on possible shaking from all likely earthquakes. They also depend on many more factors including how far away the earthquake is, local soil conditions, etc.

Given this and other new information, can one estimate the probability of damaging earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone?
Many people, including the press, quote probabilities of earthquakes that were estimated in 1985. We have learned a tremendous amount since that time. One of the things we have learned is that coming up with probabilities is much more difficult than we used to think. If we use the data on historical seismicity combined with the new information on recurrence of large earthquakes, and make the same assumptions that go into the National Seismic Hazard maps, we would estimate a 25-40% chance of a magnitude 6.0 and greater earthquake in the next 50 years and about a 7-10% probability of a repeat of the 1811-1812 earthquakes in the same time period. However, it is VERY important to note that these estimates alone do not include information about WHERE the earthquakes might occur and therefore what shaking might affect any given location. More useful are the estimates of the likely amount of ground shaking that can be expected, contained in the National Seismic Hazard maps. The ground shaking estimated accounts for both the likely ranges of recurrence intervals and locations.

What effect do these changes in recurrence estimates have on preparedness measures?
They should not have any effect on preparedness measures, which should be based on the estimated hazard. Again, we emphasize that ‘hazard’ refers to be the amount of earthquake ground shaking expected during some time period with some specified probability, and that it accounts for the range of probable earthquakes magnitudes, recurrence intervals, locations, local conditions, etc.

In what terms do we need to “couch” these new revised predictions? Who made the decision to change these estimates? Do we need to mention the change or just use the current information?
No one can “predict” earthquakes! We can only estimate the likelihood, or probability, of earthquake occurrence and thus, it is impossible to say that an earthquake will or will not occur at any particular instance of time. For example, if there’s a 25% chance of an earthquake occurring, this also means that there’s a 75% chance of it not occurring. When asked about the likelihood of earthquakes occurring, we suggest saying something like “Nobody can predict earthquakes, but given what we know now, our best estimates of the likelihood of earthquakes is…” It is also important to keep in mind that these estimates will change as we learn more!

Does everyone within USGS agree on the cause and effects of a future New Madrid event? Is it possible to have a general statement issued on the hazard that planners can use?
When differences within the research community exist and spill out into the non-research environment, how or who will clarify the issues?
No one knows what causes New Madrid earthquakes. However, there are ideas that are being researched. Although there is great uncertainty regarding the cause of earthquakes, scientists generally do agree on what happens when they do occur – that is, the likely levels of ground shaking associated with the waves earthquakes emit. These levels are reflected in the National Seismic Hazard Maps, which represent the products of a long consensus building process. These maps also account for the uncertainties in our understanding.

Differences of opinion within the research community invariably will arise. Generally these are not critical to people outside the research arena. When they are, the USGS sometimes has held workshops to try to come to a consensus and other times has announced our own internal consensus. Other researchers, of course, are not bound by what we announce. Generally, we have met with the CUSEC State Geologists and been able to come to agreement at least between the State Surveys and the USGS. In most situations, the State Surveys are the ones responsible to the State Governors and the USGS works closely with them.

Has anyone reviewed the materials from the paper published in “Science” in 1999 that says that either 1811-1812-size New Madrid earthquakes happen less frequently than has been assumed or that that they were smaller than assumed and that the hazard is overestimated? If so, does the paper make any positive point?
The controversial Science paper went through the standard journal review process (2 reviewers). More recent documents that one of the authors has been associated with and that have caused controversy have not undergone peer review. Many of the data, analysis and interpretations from the Science paper were reviewed at a workshop of experts and although no one took issue with the basic data they collected and processed, the interpretations were found to be inconsistent with the consensus. Basically, the authors treated New Madrid as if it were a plate boundary (like the San Andreas fault system), which is demonstrably incorrect. The occurrence of large earthquakes (magnitude greater than 7) every 500 years, documented from paleoliquefaction evidence, and the huge affected area from the large earthquakes in 1811-1812 clearly indicate that the New Madrid region has high seismic hazard.

Why is moment magnitude used by scientists but not by the media and other non-scientists? What is the difference between moment magnitude and Richter magnitude?
Different magnitude scales were developed to take into account different types of available data (e.g., recordings from different types of instruments and seismic wave types most pronounced at different distances). Different magnitude scales are usually valid only within a certain magnitude range and when based on specific types of recording instruments. Magnitudes estimated using different scales should be equal where the scales overlap, however. Although it technically has a very specific meaning, “Richter magnitude” generally is used incorrectly by the press to mean a generic “magnitude”. “Moment magnitude” best reflects the earthquake’s physical characteristics (like the area of fault surface that broke and amount of movement that occurred across it) The USGS has now decided to use only moment magnitude, but just say “magnitude” when reporting to the press and public.

What is the most credible event emergency preparedness measures should be based on for the central US?
This depends on what level of risk emergency managers are able — politically, morally, or legally —to accept. The USGS does not make these kinds of decisions; its job is to provide the best estimates of the probabilities of ground shaking amplitudes (i.e., provide the scientific basis on which others make decisions). Although some of the inputs have changed, estimates of the hazard (shaking) have not changed appreciably. This is largely because the shaking depends on many factors, so that changes in a few factors often have little affect.

What is the potential for a New Madrid event causing a secondary reaction on an adjoining fault such as one in the Wabash Valley?
All we know is that this has not happened in the past few 1811-1812-sized sequences.

What are the latest estimates of intensity from New Madrid earthquakes?
Intensity is a measure of the effects of shaking; i.e., the amount of damage to structures and the ground caused by earthquake shaking. The USGS National Seismic Hazard maps only provide estimates of the shaking, not its effects.

After a major earthquake in the New Madrid or Wabash Valley seismic zone, what changes to the landscape would we most likely see?
Deformation of the land surface directly over a fault that moves may manifest as very localized uplift or subsidence, or lateral distortions of up to several meters (for a very large earthquake). Shaking can cause ground failure of various types, including liquefaction and landsliding. These would have significant effect on the landscape in terms of damming streams, spewing sand and mud into fields, and causing areas near bluffs and rivers to slide and form a broken up surface.

Can you explain liquefaction? What conditions would increase or decrease the amount of liquefaction?
Liquefaction occurs when loose, sandy, water saturated soils are strongly shaken. The soils lose their capacity to bear any weight and can flow like a liquid. This process is accompanied by high pore water pressures that can force sand, water, and mud upward, often forming the signature sand blows of the New Madrid seismic zone. Many factors affect how susceptible materials are to liquefaction, but some of the most important requirements are the degree of water saturation, the size of the grains, and how well cemented they are.

After the 1811/1812 earthquakes there were reports that the Mississippi River flowed backward. Can you explain this phenomenon and what is it called?
One of the 1812 earthquakes occurred on a fault that actually crossed the river three times. The uplift along this fault formed a scarp or cliff that caused both a dam and waterfalls at different locations. The damming of the river would have temporarily backed the river up, which may account for the descriptions of the river boat pilots.

What have we learned from the recent quakes (especially in Japan) and the damage that occurred in earthquake designed bridges and buildings.
The most important lesson is that mitigation, primarily in appropriate building practices, pays off. If we compare the loss of life and damage in recent California earthquakes to those of comparable sized earthquakes in other countries, the lesson is obvious. The 1994 Northridge, CA and 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquakes were of comparable magnitude and both occurred in urban areas. Although Japan has taken many measures to mitigate earthquake damage and some of the damage differences may be due to factors other than building design, many older buildings collapsed as a result of the Kobe earthquake and there were thousands of fatalities. The building stock in Los Angeles is much younger, and much of it has been built with earthquakes in mind. Few people died as a result of the Northridge earthquake. Unlike California most of the building stock in the central US has been built without earthquakes in mind.

How large of an earthquake does it take to make an earthen dam fail?
The amplitude and other characteristics of shaking required to cause a dam to fail are really an engineering issue. The shaking will be determined not only by the size of the earthquake, but also by it’s proximity to the dam (e.g., a closer smaller earthquake may cause greater shaking than a larger more distant one).

Has the USGS considered issuing a general booklet about earthquake insurance?
Many property owners and insurance agents seem confused. Some general information would aid property owners in making a rough cost-benefit analysis. Such an analysis is difficult because of the infrequency of events that would cause damage exceeding the sometimes large percentage deductibles on structures.
To make such a booklet or other similar product useful for a particular business sector requires collaborations between the business and the USGS. There are ongoing efforts to work with the insurance companies, but currently neither group has been able/willing to invest the resources to develop products targeted at insurance issues. It is also important to keep in mind that the USGS only can provide the scientific information and at present, cannot do risk assessment (cost or damage assessment) or recommend policies.

What is the most likely occurrence from the Wabash Valley fault both in intensity, probability and location and how is it likely to affect our Indiana infrastructure?
This is an area of some controversy and few data. We know there were large prehistoric earthquakes in southern Illinois and Indiana. The size and recurrence of these earthquakes needs to be investigated more thoroughly. Estimates in the National Seismic Hazard maps are based on projecting the frequency of historical small earthquakes up to larger ones. These estimates are in reasonable agreement with earlier estimates based primarily on prehistoric liquefaction observations, but more investigation needs to be done.

What Happened to the Severe Weather?

tokerson — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 18:06:00 GMT

Well, many of you I'm sure are breathing a sigh of relief after what most of us thought was going to be a significant severe weather outbreak really didn't turn out to be all that bad. There were a few reports of damage caused by the gusty winds yesterday, as well as some localized flash flooding, and a good number of warnings that were issued for northwest TN, but all-in-all, we didn't see the widespread severe event that we feared. So what happened??? Why did we put so much hype into this event, and why did it not play out?

First, the reason that we hyped this so much was that all of the forecast models we look at were in agreement on a setup that looked very similar to other recent events that produced severe weather, most recently being the "Super Tuesday" outbreak in February. All of the ingredients needed for a severe weather outbreak were showing up......warm, moist air at the surface (instability), strong forced lifting ahead of a cold front, and a deep layer of wind shear (turning of winds with height, which is necessary for supercell & tornado development). By Wednesday morning, the Storm Predictions Center had included our region in a moderate risk area for severe weather, with tornadoes being the main threat of concern. To clarify, a "moderate risk" is an area where severe thunderstorms are expected to be "numerous and widespread". This usually only happens a handful of times each year, and usually is only reserved for situations where the forecasters are very certain of a widespread event. We were directly in the middle of that target area, so we all felt the need to convey the real threat that we felt existed, based on national forecasts, as well as comparing this setup to those that had produced damaging tornadoes in our area in the recent past.

So what happened then? Why wasn't this a huge tornado outbreak? Well, basically 2 ingredients failed to show up. First, a couple of areas of rainfall that moved through the area Thursday morning and afternoon helped to stabilize the atmosphere......basically reducing the amount of "juice" in the atmosphere. In addition, we never really saw a good break in the cloud cover, as had been expected, and so the sun wasn't allowed to re-energize the lower levels of the atmosphere. Also, a big player in a severe weather outbreak is the jet stream. Basically, as certain parts of the jet stream move over an area, it causes air at higher levels of the atmosphere to diverge, creating sort of a vacuum above us, which causes air to quickly rise. For some reason, the jet never made it very far south. So, to summarize that.....the amount of lift and instability needed for severe storms never materialized yesterday......and the storms weren't able to develop.

One of the most frustrating parts of our job is when the models and forecasts show something coming together, and then Mother Nature decides to change things at the last minute. Unfortunately, we don't really know when that's going to happen. The most frustrating part of that happening is that people may think that we are "crying wolf" and are just trying to create a big story or scare people. The reality is that all of us care about the safety of our viewers.....that's why we do what we do. We never try to wish for bad weather or hype an event just to scare people. Our goal is to make sure you are prepared for the situation and aware of the potential threat......it's always better to be safe than sorry. I'm thankful that things played out differently than expected this time around, and hopefully it will be a while before we have to deal with it again. Try to stay warm this weekend!

Meteorologist Trent Okerson

Tornado Outbreak Possible

jrukavina — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 02:00:00 GMT

This is one of the hardest weather events to prepare for.... a tornado outbreak. It’s difficult to spread the word without scaring people because lets face it...tornadoes are Mother Nature’s fiercest phenomenon. I too, am frightened by tornadoes but it has been through my seeking research and explanation on how they behave that has given me some ease of mind when severe weather threatens. I encourage those of you with serious fears of storms and tornadoes to read as much as you can on the science behind them.

As I write this post, I constantly switch back and forth between this and the radar out west. Severe weather is already ongoing in the Southern Plains and the Red River Valley Wed night and the main storm system is just beginning to take shape. It will strengthen overnight and during the day on Thursday. Here is what we are looking at for our region...

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK had issued a moderate risk for severe weather for Thursday and Thursday night for the entire NewsChannel 6 viewing area. For a look at a map in detail, click here. There is talk from SPC of being upgraded to a High Risk. A High Risk is rare and is issued only a handful of times each year.

From early morning thru noon: scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible, especially in SE Missouri. Storms may be strong but should remain below severe limits.

From Noon - 5pm: Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop during the heat of the day. The amount of sunshine we receive will determine how many do develop. The more sunshine, the more numerous and dangerous the storms will be.

From 5pm - Overnight: A concentrated line of storms will come together in Missouri early evening and push eastward. This line will be associated with a strong cold front. We will have to monitor the progression of the cold front to see how long into the overnight the threat for severe weather will last. Best guess.....storms should exit the eastern counties in KY by 5am.

THREATS: A severe weather outbreak is looking more likely including large hail, destructive winds, and strong long-lived tornadoes. This threat is most likely from mid afternoon through the overnight into Friday morning.

Now is the time to prepare before storms strike. Review safety plans with your family and co-workers. Know where to go if severe weather strikes at night. Find a sturdy shelter, preferably a basement or lower level, interior room in your home. Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible. Cover yourself from flying debris with a blanket or mattress. If you live in a mobile home, make plans to find alternative shelter. If caught outside, lie flat to the ground in a (water-free) ditch.

This may sound a bit cheesy but it is nothing but serious. When we are at risk for this kind of severe weather threat, we remember that Mother Nature will do her thing and we can only help give you the best information we have to keep you safe. We are very passionate about being here for our viewers when they need us most. We have the same worries and concerns for our families when severe weather threatens and know how important our job is. I personally feel like my purpose here on Earth is to be relied on during the most dangerous weather. We will be putting in some very long days ahead but in the end, it is totally worth it if it helps saves even one life!

Meteorologist Jennifer Rukavina

Our Spring Break Comes to an End--More Active Weather this Week

kmounce — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 03:00:00 GMT

Dry and warm Spring weather seems to be a difficult thing to keep this year. It looks like this week won't be any different. A couple of weather systems will sweep through the region. The first one arrives Tuesday evening and night. This will bring a couple rounds of rain with some areas seeing up to 1". There is also the possibility of a few strong to severe storms. The primary threats are large hail and strong wind. At this point, it appears the early week system will be the weaker of the two events.

Tuesday Outlooks

Severe Risk

Rainfall Forecast

Thursday's weather system looks to have a little more punch. The discussion from the Storm Prediction Center is posted below. In addition to the severe threat, more heavy rain will be possible. By the end of the week, parts of the region could see around 5" of rainfall.

SPC Discussion for Thursday

AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY/DAY 4 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS/MID SOUTH REGION/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/. LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF/MREF GUIDANCE ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN/SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS POTENT SYSTEM...A RESERVOIR OF RELATIVELY RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OZARKS/MID SOUTH REGION/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

Meteorologist Kyle Mounce

2-4 Inches of Rain, Maybe More!

kmounce — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 03:08:00 GMT

How Much Rain This Time?

As if we really needed it, more rain is on the way. This is a storm system that is very similar to the event in early March that dumped 10+ inches over parts of our region, however, it looks like rainfall totals won't be quite as high this go around. With the ground nearly saturated, there is nowhere for the water to go, but to run-off into low areas. The bottom line...it won't take much rain to aggravate flooding problems. This time, it looks like heavy rain and storms will drop widespread amounts of 2-4 inches of rain Thursday through Friday. The National Weather Service Rainfall Forecast is posted below.

Staying Safe During Floods

Before flooding begins, make sure you have your evacuation plan and survival kit ready. It's important to know which roads flood first, and alternate roads you can take to safety. When flooding begins, it's important to stay out of the flood water. Never drive through water covering the roadway. It only takes a few inches of rain to sweep away your car. Also, do not let kids play in flood water. You never know what chemicals or other dangerous objects could be in the water.

Meteorologist Kyle Mounce

Winter Forecasting Rant

jrukavina — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 02:01:00 GMT

After enjoying some MUCH needed drying out time, rain chances come back into the forecast Tuesday night. A cold front is advancing from the Northern Plains and will sit stationary over the region for 2-3 days. Although we are not expecting a long, steady rain...we are forecasting a few rounds of showers and storms that will bring added flooding concerns. Most rivers are just now cresting, which is good, but they may swell again going into the upcoming weekend. At this point, 1-2" of rain is possible as a total from Wed-Fri. The storm prediction center has also outlooked our region for strong storms Thursday night - Friday. The main threat will be damaging winds.

The active weather pattern is attributed to a strong La Nina signal. In a typical La Nina year, moisture is higher and so are the temperatures. La Nina can last anywhere from a couple of months to as long as 2 years. At the very least, it looks like we are going to keep our active weather through much of Spring. One thing is certain, we are no longer concerned about drought conditions. It would be nice to see a weaker La Nina stick around for the summer months.

I have been thinking a lot about this past winter's forecasts. I'll be the first to admit that it was a difficult period with changing forecasts, missed winter events, and history making weather. I can honestly say that a few of the snow/ice events (especially the snow storm) still leave me scratching my head. I have never seen such an active winter period that included ice, snow, severe weather, high winds, and temperature swings. I could take the easy way out and blame global warming.....not going to do that! I think that might be part of the bigger picture in some respect but not one single weather event can be blamed on climate change. Just like El Nino, La Nina sends the jetstream into overdrive. The computer models that we use on a daily basis just do not take that in to account and thus give us an "incomplete" look at the atmosphere. That is a big challenge!

Its very disappointing to me that it led to some inaccurate forecasts when it counted most. I received some not-so-nice emails and calls from viewers that shared in that disappointment. I wish I had some magical weather wand that gave me some better insight this past winter but its like any other science. In medicine, you can prescribe all the right medication and perform a perfect surgery and sometimes it just doesnt work....with no explaination. Meteorology is a science and it is nowhere near perfect. Even in the day and age and "the power of Ultimate Doppler Six Live Radars", its not always going to work. I can assure you this....the staff of meteorologists we have here at Channel 6 give 100% every single day to make sure we give the viewer the very best information we have. You hear our news slogan all the time...WORKING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE. For most, it is just a saying but I have always lived by that through my service to our viewers. I really do care about how the weather will impact people. That's why when heavy weather is expected, we often put in 12+ hour days, sometimes days at a time without complaint. It's my passion! I could care less about the being on tv aspect. Its a perk, yes. I have always offered that if someone wants to come and shadow the meteorologists and see what all we really do, we would love to have them with us for the day.

Off the ranting now.....it takes thick skin to be in this business. I would really like to hear your feedback and what you would like to see more of from us. I enjoy writing in this blog because it is less formal and it gives me a place to get to know some of our viewers. Talk back!

Meteorologist Jennifer Rukavina

April Weather Outlook--What's next?

kmounce — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 23:01:00 GMT

A very active start to our year of weather has many people saying enough is enough. After all of the heavy rain, dry weather has really been helping areas begin to dry out. So, the big question is: Are we finally turning the corner to a calmer weather pattern? The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released the temperature and rainfall outlooks for the month of April.

Rainfall

The rainfall outlook doesn't really offer a lot of direction, one way or the other. The CPC has placed our region in the "Equal Chances" category. Basically, this means our chances of having above average rainfall or below average is about the same. Typically, April is a fairly wet month for us with an average rainfall of 4.95".

Temperatures

The temperature outlook suggests April to be a bit warmer than average. In addition, well above average temperatures are forecast across the Bootheel and NW Tennessee. An average high for April 1st is 64, while the average high on the 30th warms all the way to 73.

While these outlooks give us an idea of what to expect, they are simply a forecast or "guideline". We can still have wetter/drier & colder/warmer periods.

Meteorologist Kyle Mounce

Heavy Rainfall Possible This Week

tokerson — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 04:47:00 GMT

A potent weather system bringing with it a period of prolonged moderate to heavy rain is looking more likely on Tuesday and Wednesday, with some parts of the area possibly receiving over 5 inches of rain by Wednesday. With river levels already at or slightly above flood stage, and with soil saturation already maxed out, some localized flooding could be an issue with this system. In addition, areas south of the Ohio River, mainly KY and TN, are in a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, with large hail and a few isolated tornadoes a possibility.

Below is a summary of maximum rainfall totals for Monday through Wednesday from the Hydrometeorologic Prediction Center.

--Meteorologist Trent Okerson

Skywarn Spotter Training Classes

tokerson — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 04:40:00 GMT

If any of you are interested in learning more about severe weather or would like to find out more about becoming a storm spotter, here is are links to the spotter training class schedule with the National Weather Service. Copy and paste these links into your address bar to go to the NWS website for an updated schedule.

Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri--http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=spottertraining

Arkansas, Tennessee--http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/skywarncalendar.php

--Meteorologist Trent Okerson